20/20 Vision

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“We do not see things as they are. We see things as we are.”

Alright everyone, time for some perspective.

If all you read about the Nationals season so far were the comments left on various social media forums, you would probably surmise that the world had tilted off its axis, sending Nationals Park hurtling into an alternate universe where Bryce Harper was fighting off an alien invasion with nothing more than a bag of bats. At the very least, you’d think the District Nine were off to some frighteningly horrible start through their first 20 games – perhaps a league-worst 5-15 mark, or something of the like.

Ross Detwiler has turned in four straight quality starts to open the year.

Ross Detwiler has turned in four straight quality starts to open the year.

But no, through 20 games – during which the team has openly admitted it has not played its best baseball – the Nationals are 10-10. Through 20 games last season, they were 14-6 (before dropping to 14-9). While that 20-game sample may seem significantly better, it’s really just four games in the standings.

Conversely, there are signs this team is starting to improve its play. After averaging an error per game through the first 18 contests, the Nationals have played error-free ball the last two nights, over which their numbers four and five starters have combined with the bullpen to allow just five runs in 18 innings (2.50 ERA) against one of the top offenses in the National League. All they need is for the bats to get going, an adjustment they also needed to make early last season.

Still, through 20 games this season, the Nats have scored 74 runs. Through 20 games last year, they had scored 71.

Now, let’s put the opening of the season in some greater historical perspective. Here are the records of the last five World Series Champions through 20 games:

2012 San Francisco Giants: 10-10

2011 St. Louis Cardinals: 11-9

2010 San Francisco Giants: 12-8

2009 New York Yankees: 10-10

2008 Philadelphia Phillies: 10-10

Sensing a trend? Great, stay with us – it only gets better. We caught up with Yahoo! Sports Baseball Columnist Jeff Passan on Tuesday morning about what he thought of Washington’s start.

Bryce Harper has been the most consistent offensive performer so far.

Bryce Harper has been the most consistent offensive performer so far.

“A team’s last 20 games tells you a lot more than their first 20,” he explained. “By June 1, you should have a pretty decent idea of how good (the Nationals) are, and I think they’ll be right where everyone expects them to be.”

Passan picked the Nationals to go to the World Series. Last year. He’s been following the rise of the team for quite a while, and is not the least bit worried. However, even his deadline may be a bit premature. Here were the five eventual 2012 MLB Division Champions records (other than the Nationals) entering play on June 1 last season:

New York Yankees: 27-23

Detroit Tigers: 23-27

Oakland Athletics: 22-29

Cincinnati Reds: 28-22

San Francisco Giants: 27-24

Yes, that’s right. The other five Division Champions were a combined two games over .500 on June 1 (127-125), a full 30 additional games past the point where your Nationals sit today.

Baseball is a long season. It is not football. Every game does not make or break you. It seems we forget this each year, when baseball flows away from our conscious, hibernating in its cave until the earth defrosts again and spring arrives. We seem to take our frantic sense of football urgency with us into the beginning of the baseball season, to overvalue both wins and losses in dramatic fashion.

Last year’s Nationals lost three or more consecutive games eight times. They lost five in a row twice. There’s a pretty good chance this year’s team will endure similar stretches as the season goes on. These Nationals have also shown they’re capable of winning streaks, such as their resounding 3-game sweep to start the season. There’s every reason to believe that there are many more of those runs to come.

But for now, Nationals fans, it’s still just April 24 and your team is 10-10, sharing second place in the NL East. Sit back and enjoy the ride, we’ve still got quite a long ways to go.

2 Comments

Nats pressing. They know they’re good, they just have to let their natural talents come to the fore.

That resounding 3 game sweep came at the expense of the marlins. A team with no salary to speak of, that is expected to be amongst the worst. EVER. La Roche was a mistake, Zimm should be at first, Espinosa should only be on the field in cases of injury to lombo, keep reston at third, and we could really use another bat in the outfield to compliment harper. Think this is bad? Wait for Harper to start pressing and dobit all himself when he realizes its him and no one else on defense. How many runs do the Nats have this year by something other than the long ball? You cannot win anything meaningful on errors and home runs.

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